What Is xG? Expected Goals Stats Explained
xG (expected goals) is the chance that a shot becomes a goal, expressed as a number from 0 to 1. A shot with an xG of 0.10 goes in about once in every ten similar attempts, and a penalty is worth roughly 0.79. Add up the xG of every shot a player or team takes and you see how many goals those chances were worth, whatever the final score said.
What does xG mean in football?
xG stands for expected goals. It answers a question the scoreline cannot: how good were the chances a team created? A long-range effort and a tap-in from two yards both count as one shot, but they are very different chances, and xG gives each one its own value between 0 and 1.
Take a shot rated 0.10 xG. If the same kind of chance came up 100 times, about 10 of them would be expected to score. No single shot is 0.10 of a goal; the number is a probability, and it only becomes meaningful when shots are added together.
“xG stats” and “xG statistics” mean exactly the same thing: the numbers built from those shot values, such as a player’s total xG, a team’s xG for and against, or the gap between goals and xG.
How are xG stats calculated?
An xG model looks at what happened before the ball was struck and asks how often similar shots have scored. The main ingredients are:
- Where the shot was taken. Distance to goal and the angle open to the goalkeeper matter most. A central shot from six yards is worth far more than a wide one from 25.
- How it was struck. A shot with the foot and a header are different chances, and a shot at an open goal is different again.
- What kind of situation created it. Open play, a corner, a direct free kick, a throw-in, a counter-attack and a penalty each score at their own rate.
Every shot on xGstats is stored with its position on the pitch, the body part used, the situation and the outcome, and the xG value sits on top of that. Two shots from the same spot can still differ, because a model can only use what it knows about the shot.
How to read xG statistics
The easiest way to get a feel for xG is to look at real shots. The table below covers 35,143 shots from 1,410 matches in the 2024/25 Premier League, La Liga, Serie A and Bundesliga. Average xG and the share that ended in a goal are shown for each type of shot.
| Type of shot | Shots | Average xG | Share that scored |
|---|---|---|---|
| Open play | 22,454 | 0.103 | 10.7% |
| From corner | 5,678 | 0.084 | 7.9% |
| Counter-attack | 2,440 | 0.171 | 14.9% |
| Free kick delivery | 2,186 | 0.092 | 8.5% |
| Direct free kick | 1,044 | 0.057 | 5.8% |
| From throw-in | 950 | 0.094 | 8.8% |
| Penalty | 391 | 0.788 | 78.0% |
Two things stand out. Penalties are in a class of their own at 0.788 average xG, while a direct free kick, at 0.057, is the lowest-value type of shot in the table.
The next table shows why xG works as a guide. Shots are grouped by their xG value, and the share that actually scored lines up closely with the average xG in every group.
| xG of the shot | Shots | Average xG | Share that scored |
|---|---|---|---|
| Below 0.05 | 16,672 | 0.028 | 2.9% |
| 0.05 to 0.10 | 8,344 | 0.071 | 7.6% |
| 0.10 to 0.20 | 5,230 | 0.139 | 13.8% |
| 0.20 to 0.40 | 2,850 | 0.280 | 28.2% |
| 0.40 and above | 2,047 | 0.622 | 59.0% |
Across the whole sample the shots added up to 3,865.6 xG and produced 3,842 goals. The average team took 12.5 shots per match, worth 1.37 xG, and scored 1.36 goals from them. Those figures are a handy yardstick: a team with more than about 1.4 xG in a match created a better-than-average set of chances, and one with less than 1.0 created fewer than usual.
How distance changes xG
Distance from goal is the single biggest driver of xG, and the shots on xGstats show it clearly. The table groups 34,752 non-penalty shots from the same 2024/25 sample by how far from goal they were taken.
| Distance from goal | Shots | Average xG | Share that scored |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 to 6 metres | 1,794 | 0.405 | 38.6% |
| 6 to 12 metres | 9,277 | 0.150 | 14.0% |
| 12 to 18 metres | 10,870 | 0.092 | 9.7% |
| 18 to 25 metres | 8,617 | 0.040 | 4.4% |
| Over 25 metres | 4,194 | 0.023 | 2.8% |
Only about one shot in twenty is taken from inside six metres, yet those shots score almost four times in ten. More than one shot in three comes from beyond 18 metres, yet those shots score fewer than one time in twenty. That gap is why a team that shoots from distance can rack up shots without racking up xG.
Distances are calculated from each shot’s recorded position and calibrated so that penalties sit on the penalty spot, 11 metres from goal.
xG, xGOT, xA and npxG: the terms
Expected goals comes with a family of related numbers. Knowing what each one measures makes team and player tables much easier to read.
| Term | Stands for | What it measures |
|---|---|---|
| xG | Expected goals | The chance that a shot scores, from 0 to 1, based on the situation before the shot |
| xGF | xG for | The total xG a team created in its own shots |
| xGA | xG against | The total xG a team allowed from the shots it faced |
| xGD | xG difference | xGF minus xGA. A positive number means a team created more than it gave away |
| npxG | Non-penalty xG | xG with penalties removed, so a spot kick does not distort a total |
| xGOT | Expected goals on target | The chance that a shot scores once its placement is known. It only exists for shots that were on target |
| xA | Expected assists | The xG of the shots that a pass created, credited to the player who made the pass |
| Goals minus xG | Finishing or luck | How far a player’s goals are above or below what their chances were worth |
The last row is often the most talked about. For example, 12 goals from 8.5 xG means more goals than the chances suggested, and that can reflect real finishing skill, a hot streak, or both.
What xG can and cannot tell you
xG is a measure of chance quality, and it works best when you respect its limits. It describes shots, not players or luck, and it says nothing about what happened away from goal.
- Small samples are noisy. One match can produce a 3-0 win from 0.8 xG. Over a season, goals and xG usually sit much closer together.
- It rates the chance, not the finish. xG uses the situation before the shot. Placement is what xGOT adds.
- Different providers use different models. Two sites can show a slightly different xG for the same shot, so compare numbers from one source rather than mixing them.
- It does not credit build-up. A team that keeps the ball well but rarely shoots can look quiet in xG even when it controls a match.
Used sensibly, xG is one of the fairest ways to judge whether a result was earned, and whether a run of goals is likely to continue.
Where to find xG stats on xGstats
xG appears throughout the site, and every number is built from the shots behind it:
- The leaderboards on the stats page rank players by goals, shots and highest xG.
- Every league page has a table with xGF, xGA and xGD for each team, next to points and goal difference.
- Each team page lists its squad with goals, assists and xG per player.
- Player pages carry a shot map, where every shot sits at the spot it was taken with its own xG value. Start from the players page to find one.
FAQ
Quick answers to the questions people ask most often about xG, xG stats and expected goals.
What does xG mean in football?
xG means expected goals. It is the probability, from 0 to 1, that a shot becomes a goal, based on where and how it was taken.
Are xG stats and xG statistics the same?
Yes, there is no difference. Both phrases describe the numbers built from shot-level xG values, such as total xG, xG for and against, and goals minus xG.
Is a higher xG better?
Yes, for the team or player creating the chances. A higher xG means better or more numerous shots. It is not a guarantee of goals, which is why xG is compared with goals over many matches.
Does distance change xG?
Yes, more than anything else. In the 2024/25 sample, shots from inside six metres averaged 0.405 xG, while shots from beyond 25 metres averaged 0.023.
What is a good xG per match?
In the 2024/25 sample above, the average team created 1.37 xG per match. Consistently creating more than that points to an attack that is producing better than average chances.
What is the difference between xG and xGOT?
xG rates a shot from the situation before it is struck. xGOT rates it after the placement is known and only covers shots on target, so it also reflects how well a shot was placed.
Why can xG differ between websites?
Each provider builds its own model and may weigh distance, angle and situation differently. The same shot can therefore carry a slightly different value, so use one source when you compare players or teams.