Here, we go through a match shot by shot to show how xG numbers are calculated.
Note: this was originally written in 2018 and our model has been tweaked and improved since then so some of the xG’s stated might be a touch different now. But still a good rough guide if you are new to xG.
League One - 29th September 2018
Shot Peterborough
8th Minute
0 Score 0
0.02 - xG - 0.00
8th Minute – J.Walker (P’boro) – 0.02 xG – Attempt
Shot from outside the box
Big Chance Blackpool
12th Minute
0 Score 0
0.02 - xG - 0.39
12th Minute – N.Delfouneso (Blackpool) – 0.39 xG – Big Chance
A throughball in between 2 defenders puts Delfouneso through but he scuffs his shot. A good chance.
Shot Peterborough
14th Minute
0 Score 0
0.07 - xG - 0.39
8th Minute – J.Walker (P’boro) – 0.05 xG – Attempt
Shot from just inside the box, at angle, with close defensive pressure
Shot Peterborough
19th Minute
0 Score 0
0.13 - xG - 0.39
19th Minute – M.Maddison (P’boro) – 0.06 xG – Attempt
Attempted curl into top corner
22nd Minute
0 Score 0
0.14 - xG - 0.40
20th Minute – M.Maddison (P’boro) – 0.01 xG – Attempt
22nd Minute – J.Thompson (Blackpool) – 0.01 xG – Attempt
A shot each from long distance, both with low chance of scoring
GOAL Peterborough
27th Minute
1 Score 0
0.25 - xG - 0.40
27th Minute – R.Bennett (P’boro) – 0.11 xG – Goal
A long diagonal into the penalty area is met in the air by Bennett under close defensive pressure.
Chance Blackpool
33rd Minute
1 Score 0
0.25 - xG - 0.48
33rd Minute – J.Thompson (Blackpool) – 0.08 xG – Attempt
Good position but lots of defensive pressure
Chance Blackpool
40th Minute
1 Score 0
0.25 - xG - 0.66
41st Minute – L.Feeney (Blackpool) – 0.18 xG – Chance
From a counter attack, under defensive pressure
Chance Blackpool
41st Minute
1 Score 0
0.25 - xG - 0.90
41st Minute – C.Tilt (Blackpool) – 0.22 xG – Chance
41st Minute – A.Gnanduillet (Blackpool) – 0.04 xG – Attempt
Combined xG of overall attack = 0.24
Header from a corner inside 6 yard box. Hits the bar and loops up back into play. Rebound a difficult looping header under pressure.
Attempt Blackpool
42nd Minute
1 Score 0
0.25 - xG - 0.91
42nd Minute – C.Guy (Blackpool) – 0.01 xG – Attempt
Long range effort
Chance Blackpool
43rd Minute
1 Score 0
0.25 - xG - 1.02
43rd Minute – C.Guy (Blackpool) – 0.11 xG – Attempt
Good position but lots of bodies in front
Half Time
Attempt Blackpool
51st Minute
1 Score 0
0.25 - xG - 1.10
51st Minute – B.Heneghan (Blackpool) – 0.08 xG – Attempt
Header from a corner, under pressure. Cleared off the line.
Attempt Blackpool
54th Minute
1 Score 0
0.25 - xG - 1.12
54th Minute – J.Thompson (Blackpool) – 0.02 xG – Attempt
Effort from distance
Attempt Blackpool
56th Minute
1 Score 0
0.25 - xG - 1.14
56th Minute – A.Gnanduillet (Blackpool) – 0.02 xG – Attempt
Cross from out wide, header at an angle, from a fair distance out and under defensive pressure
GOAL Blackpool
58th Minute
1 Score 1
0.25 - xG - 1.67
58th Minute – A.Gnanduillet (Blackpool) – 0.77 xG – Goal
Rolled across goal for a tap-in under strong pressure.
Chance Peterborough
59th Minute
1 Score 1
0.39 - xG - 1.67
59th Minute – I.Toney (P’boro) – 0.14 xG – Attempt
Shot from edge of penalty area, central location
Shot Peterborough
60th Minute
1 Score 1
0.40 - xG - 1.67
60th Minute – M.Maddison (P’boro) – 0.01 xG – Attempt
Shot from wide and from distance
Shot Peterborough
62nd Minute
1 Score 1
0.43 - xG - 1.67
62nd Minute – C.Daniel (P’boro) – 0.03 xG – Attempt
Header from a cross
GOAL Peterborough
64th Minute
2 Score 1
0.52 - xG - 1.67
64th Minute – M.O’Hara (P’boro) – 0.09 xG – Goal
Shot from central position, under pressure
GOAL Blackpool
66th Minute
2 Score 2
0.52 - xG - 1.82
66th Minute – N.Delfouneso (Blackpool) – 0.15 xG – Goal
Shot from central position, with little pressure
Attempt Blackpool
70th Minute
2 Score 2
0.52 - xG - 1.83
70th Minute – C.Guy (Blackpool) – 0.01 xG – Attempt
Cleared corner falls to central position shooter
Big Chance Blackpool
72nd Minute
2 Score 2
0.52 - xG - 2.55
72nd Minute – J.Thompson (Blackpool) – 0.72 xG – Big Chance
Ball across goal, good location, no defensive pressure, put it wide
Attempt Blackpool
74th Minute
2 Score 2
0.52 - xG - 2.62
74th Minute – L.Feeney (Blackpool) – 0.07 xG – Attempt
In penalty area but at angle
Chance Blackpool
77th Minute
2 Score 2
0.52 - xG - 2.76
77th Minute – A.Gnanduillet (Blackpool) – 0.14 xG – Chance
Close range header under pressure
Chance Peterborough
85th Minute
2 Score 2
0.69 - xG - 2.76
85th Minute – J.Cummings (P’boro) – 0.09 xG – Chance
85th Minute – I.Toney (P’boro) – 0.10 xG – Attempt
Combined xG of overall attack = 0.17
First shot in good position bit with high defensive pressure. Blocked by defence, ball falls to 2nd player who has very similar shot.
Shot Peterborough
88th Minute
2 Score 2
0.71 - xG - 2.76
88th Minute – J.Ward (P’boro) – 0.02 xG – Attempt
Volley under pressure
Shot Peterborough
90+7 Minutes
2 Score 2
0.74 - xG - 2.76
90th+7 Minutes – J.Naismith (P’boro) – 0.03 xG – Attempt
Shot from outside the box
Full Time
Match Stats
2 - Score - 2
0.74 - xG - 2.76
12 - Shots - 16
0 - Big Chance - 3
A strong away performance from Blackpool. They created a higher quantity of chances than P’boro and a significantly higher quality of chance. P’boro scored with 2 fairly low % chances while Blackpool squandered some good chances.
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